DISQUS

papa · 1 year ago

Now that Google's missed estimates you can probably say the sky is falling :-P

Seriously though, when was the last time Google missed earnings?

papa · 1 year ago

^ but would that we could all grow as rapidly as google (in spite of analyst's insatiable expectations)

webomatica · 1 year ago

Hmmm well even I didn't expect that. I don't think they have ever missed earnings. 17% ain't shabby in my mind but definitely not the high numbers we've seen in the past.

DaveD · 1 year ago

Several things make this uncharted territories....

(1) The FED cutting 125 basis points over a couple of sessions is simply historic - yet it really didn't matter much.

(2) The last time we didn't have a sitting president or vice-president running for office was 1960.

(3) Every tech company reporting is scaling down guidance or missing EPS expectations.

(4) In AAPL's case, they grew like very few stocks have since 2004. And by very few, I'm saying that you can count the number of market-cap peers that have done this one one hand. Can you *really* say with confidence that the stock wasn't overpriced in the second half of 2007? If so, then please explain how iPhone sales (decent, on target but only so) and iPod sales (unit sales flat to poor, profits on target) stack up against things.

(5) Last week the DOW hit an intraday level that hasn't been seen since Bill Clinton was in office. NASDAQ? Well, sure, they've been there before too (post bubble-bust) but they are a FAR cry from where they were in 2001.

Bottom line? I sold everything last Wednesday (consciously but incorrectly decided to wait for one more earnings call) and am now sitting in 100% cash. My non-AAPL holdings? Combined they netted me 4.28% over the last three years and I took one loss (with of all things, GE). My AAPL holdings? Combined aross two accounts and six purchases - 152.8% for the same three years. And that's after leaving nearly another 150% on the table since December 28.

I'll get back in someday. AAPL that is. But right now I'm looking at having sold at 138+ and 139+ last Wednesday... and it closed up today at 135... and AH has it down a dollar. SO when do I think I'll get back in? When I'm POSITIVE it's bottomed out.

What's going to bring it up? New MacBook Pros? If they had a major change they'd have inrotoduced them at MWSF. The Beatles on iTunes? That last last year's silly rumor for February. iPhone SDK? Well, that'll be sweet - but until developers actually make native software it won't make one bit of difference.

What's going to keep it down? Fiscal Q2 is always their slowest quarter. Recession concerns. Credit debt. Unemployment. Inflation. Oil prices. Weak dollar.

It gets down to this - they've lowered expectations for the April call, and they have extremely good growth in Mac sales. Too bad they had nothing much to introduce at MWSF. The Air is a niche product that is 1-2 years ahead of it's time at best. It's an underpowered overpriced limited-by-design product at worst.

All told this could easily mean the stock price won't see 200 again until October - and *that* is if the perfect storm hits, and overall market conditions turn bullish. In all likelihood we're talking 2009 - and not necessarily the MWSF '09 runup either.

papa · 1 year ago

Well...here comes the MSFT unsolicited bid! This is sure to make for some fun news entertainment. Time for a webomatica post on the topic :-)

webomatica · 1 year ago

Wow - another event just out of the blue. I'll definitely post on this later but right now I need to digest the implications. I guess MSFT is taking advantage of their good earnings and everyone else's weakness.