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I agree that Chrome OS isn't going to be any threat to Apple. I do think, however, that the extremely price-conscious PC users out there who only use their computers for email and web surfing will be attracted to this enough that MS will loose quite a bit of market share and money here.
Android and the iPhone are killing Windows Mobile. Chrome will kill XP on the netbook.
This is a much bigger shot at MS than Apple. No, it won't stop businesses from running Windows on PC desktops, but it will eat into laptop and netbook Windows licenses. And anything that puts another dent in the MS monopoly is good for the planet, as far as I'm concerned.
I, for one, HATE the idea of the whole computing experience being in the browser. People have been trying to sell me on this since the early 2000s, and I'm still not buying it. I still use separate apps for my mail, chat, and Twitter. Whenever a Web 2.0 service is available in a separate app (as is the case with Evernote), I use the app. So there's no way I'm going to do my word processing and Photo editing in a browser.
But I think I'm the exception. People seem to like the GMail browser client. They seem to use web sites for all kinds of crazy things. HTML 5 is going to make web apps even more powerful.
I think Google's biggest barrier to success here is infrastructure. I still can't get the "cloud" from a parking garage, or on my train commute to work. HTML5's offline features will help with this, but there will still be times where people will "NEED" connectivity and won't be able to get it. Google needs to be lobbying Washington to make broadband connectivity absolutely ubiquitous across the entire US if they really want to make cloud computing a reality.
purchased one. After looking at different models and even fiddling around
with Linux in VM Ware fusion to see what it would be like, researching OS X
installation options on netbooks, and checking out some hardware in stores
(some are shockingly "calculator like") - I decided to just wait and see
what Apple's answer might be, if any. I still hold out hope they're working
on something. And if not I'll just end up with a MacBook - I seem to have
come around that they're worth the "extra" hundred dollars through running
OS X and better quality hardware.
I am with you on holding back on the cloud. You raise another good reason
why, which is connectivity and infrastructure. WiFi is nowhere near
ubiquitous (what happened to all the free WiFi plans here in the bay area
alone?), the cellphone companies have their own issues, and even broadband
is pretty weak penetration wise.
Netbook configurations vary - and this will also be an issue for Google. I expect they'll partner with a few OEMs and release Chrome on a few very specific configurations, leaving the rest of the netbook hardware to be hacked by the open source crowd.
I've also been on the fence about buying a netbook. I know I probably won't make that much use of it, and have been waiting for Apple to release a new form factor since last summer. I can wait another 1 to 1.5 years. If (or when) Google finally releases this piece of vaporware in fall/winter 2010 it happens that Apple *still* hasn't released something, I'll probably pick up a Chrome OS netbook.
So... I find myself in the same camp as you. Wait to see what, if anything, Apple releases in this area - I could seriously see paying $700 - $1000 for an Apple "netbook" (although, it would more likely be just called a "MacBook." That's my dream anyhow; we'll see if it comes to pass.