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I haven't seen a clear Bush analogy yet because the Cylons are "the Americans" in this allegory, and they run by group consensus and vote rather than having a single leader.
OTOH, the show is pretty clear on the fact that the suicide bombing strategy is a bad one, and an morally wrong one. At least if they are going to make an Al Qaeda analogy, they're showing it as a 'bad thing'.
Things could be seen many different ways. You're right though, clearer analogy is more like Baltar is a puppet dictator.
You have to agree though a "sci fi" show that even makes people think about such subjects is pretty cool. Although I think some are going to be annoyed an label this as "politicizing" of Battlestar Galactica.